The NFL Week 5 runs from Wednesday, October 2nd to Tuesday, October 8th, but the first game kicks off on Thursday, October 4th. Here’s a breakdown of some of the key matchups for NFL Week 5, with analysis followed by predictions and odds.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The home team usually gets an edge on short weeks, but with minimal travel between Tampa and Atlanta, this could be a tight game. The Falcons have been competitive, even earning a win over the Eagles and pushing the Chiefs to the limit. However, their offense remains an issue—they struggle to run the ball and can’t finish drives, which puts too much pressure on their defense.
The Buccaneers have reinforcements with Vita Vea back in the lineup, improving their run defense, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing at a high level. Tampa Bay’s top-10 passing attack could give the Falcons trouble, especially since Atlanta’s offensive limitations will likely give Tampa’s defense more opportunities. The Buccaneers have been strong as underdogs, covering the spread in 9 of their last 11 games, while the Falcons have struggled in the favorite role.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Odds: 1.61
Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets
The Vikings managed to scrape by in a close game against Green Bay, but their offense showed promise, with over 370 yards of total offense. However, they need to reduce turnovers and penalties to maintain consistent success. The Jets, on the other hand, looked shaky against the Broncos. New York managed just 248 yards and struggled to convert third downs, which highlights their offensive woes. Their defense was the lone bright spot, but even that may not be enough to stop Minnesota’s attack.
With the Jets’ offense looking lackluster and Minnesota being the better all-around team, the Vikings should find a way to win and cover the spread, especially if they clean up their mistakes.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Odds: 1.79
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have shown promise at times, but without Tua Tagovailoa under center, their offense has faltered. Over the last three games, Miami has scored fewer than 12 points in each, and their performance against the Titans was abysmal, managing just 184 total yards. The offense lacks rhythm and consistency, which could spell trouble on the road.
The Patriots have had their own offensive struggles, but they are at home, and Miami’s poor form as an underdog—failing to cover in their last six games—gives New England an advantage. It’s hard to trust the Dolphins’ offense until it shows signs of life, making the Patriots the better bet.
Prediction: New England Patriots Win
Odds: 1.90
Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns
The Commanders are coming off a convincing road win against a struggling Cardinals team, posting impressive offensive stats, including 449 yards of offense and 29 first downs. Washington has found success on third downs and showed an ability to control the game.
The Browns, meanwhile, played decent defense against the Raiders but struggled offensively, managing only 241 total yards and converting just 3-of-10 third downs. With Cleveland’s offense looking stagnant, this is a game Washington should be able to control comfortably at home.
Prediction: Washington Commanders -2.5
Odds: 1.67
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos have been one of the biggest surprises this season, performing well despite a tough schedule. Their defense remains one of the best in the league, and now that they’re at home, the Broncos should have an added edge. Meanwhile, the Raiders are dealing with injuries to key players like Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, and their defense has been inconsistent.
Denver’s offense has room for improvement, but the Raiders’ lackluster play, combined with injuries, should make this a favorable matchup for the Broncos.
Prediction: Denver Broncos Win
Odds: 1.68
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers put together a solid performance last week, especially on defense, holding the Patriots to just 216 total yards and forcing three turnovers. While San Francisco’s offense had some issues, they still managed to control the game. Arizona, on the other hand, has been struggling on both sides of the ball. Their blowout loss to Washington highlighted their defensive weaknesses, as they allowed 29 first downs and failed to get off the field on third down.
San Francisco’s defense should once again dominate, and the Cardinals’ struggles on both sides of the ball make it likely the 49ers will cover the spread.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -5.5
Odds: 1.63
Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants
The Giants are under pressure, especially on offense, where they’ve averaged just 18 points per game over the last three weeks. Daniel Jones has struggled, and the offense is inconsistent. Seattle is coming off a short week, but Geno Smith has been steady under center, and the Seahawks have managed to keep their offense on track.
The Giants’ recent record as a road underdog is uninspiring, going 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games in that role. This trend, combined with their offensive struggles, points to a Seattle win.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Win
Odds: 1.39
Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love returned from an injury and threw three interceptions in his first game back, but he and the Packers found their rhythm in the second half. The Rams, however, are struggling with injuries, particularly at receiver, as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been sidelined. The Packers have historically performed well against the Rams, winning their last four meetings.
If Love can avoid the turnovers, the Packers should be able to take advantage of the Rams’ weakened lineup and secure a victory.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers Win
Odds: 1.56
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints
The Chiefs continue to battle through injuries, but Patrick Mahomes has relied on key players like Kareem Hunter and Travis Kelce to maintain offensive momentum. The Saints have dropped two straight games, but they boast a top-10 defense, allowing only 17.7 points per game.
Despite the Saints’ strong defense, the Chiefs’ offensive talent and ability to adjust should give them the edge, especially at home. Kansas City’s experience and playmaking ability could prove too much for New Orleans to handle.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs Win
Odds: 1.44
These picks are suggested individually, so take each bet on its own and avoid combining them into an accumulator for a safer betting approach. Always bet responsibly!
